India’s Russian fuel trade reached a new high in estimated value in October. That does not mean Indian refiners received a record quantity of Russian crude.
In a report published on November 12, 2026, the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air estimated India’s Russian fossil-fuel purchases at €6.4 billion for October 2026, the highest monthly value in its series beginning in January 2022. Crude accounted for €5.8 billion; the total also includes coal and oil products. Calling the whole amount an oil-import figure changes what is being measured.
The Breakdown
In its November 3 assessment, S&P Global’s Commodities at Sea put Russian crude flows into India at nearly 2.1 million barrels a day in October, recovering from 1.64 million in September but below June’s 2.43 million.
These are different providers measuring different things. CREA’s euro estimate covers several fuels from Russia. The S&P figures describe crude volumes. They should not be divided into one another to calculate a supposed price per barrel.
S&P also estimated India’s October crude imports for domestic destinations, across all suppliers, at 5.54 million barrels a day. Its broader measure of seaborne discharges was 6.4 million barrels a day, including cargo transferred between ships and subsequently redistributed to other markets. The broader discharge figure is not the same as crude destined for Indian refineries.
What the euro estimate includes
CREA combines shipment information with pricing models to estimate trade values. These are not audited payment records from Indian buyers. The estimates are model-dependent and can be revised as shipment information is updated. Its methodology specifically models Urals, a Russian crude grade, on a free-on-board basis, which values oil at the loading port rather than adding the buyer’s onward transport and insurance costs.
That qualification matters for a refiner choosing between suppliers. A lower loading-port price can be offset by a more expensive journey. The relevant comparison is between comparable grades delivered to the plant, not just the headline price at origin.
There is a concrete example of that pressure. Platts assessed crude-tanker freight on the Black Sea–West Coast India route at a lump sum of $28 million on October 30, against a year-to-date average of $14.5 million. This is a route assessment, not the freight bill for every Russian cargo or a per-barrel charge.
Why This Matters
Trade value, physical supply and business profitability answer different questions. A higher value can accompany more barrels, higher prices or a different mix of fuels. Refinery profit additionally depends on processing costs and the prices earned from finished products. None of those outcomes can be read straight from one aggregate euro figure.
The same caution applies to households and other fuel users. An estimated cross-border trade value does not, by itself, establish a change in the price they pay.
The Crunch
October’s record is meaningful, but its label matters: estimated Russian fossil-fuel trade value in CREA’s series. To understand what it means for India, keep the barrels, the delivery costs and the refinery’s earnings separate.
Related categories: India & The World
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