India’s dealmaking market can stay busy even when its dollar total falls. A handful of large transactions can move headline value much more than they move the number of deals.
That distinction helps frame the latest assessment from Citi’s India investment-banking head, Rahul Saraf. In remarks reported on October 29, he described dealmaking as resilient and driven by strategic considerations. It is a banker’s view of the market, rather than a finding that currency and financing conditions no longer matter.
The Breakdown
Reported LSEG figures put India’s year-to-date M&A value at $95.5 billion, against $118.5 billion a year earlier. The number of deals was little changed. The figures were compiled in the week of October 29; they are not a full-year result.
A separate quarterly picture comes from Grant Thornton Bharat’s Q3 Dealtracker. Its public summary recorded 255 M&A transactions worth $13.2 billion in July–September. The count rose 7% from the preceding quarter, while value fell 53%.
The comparison is influenced by a large transaction in the earlier period. Grant Thornton says Q2 included the $11.8 billion Sun Pharma–Organon transaction. Even after excluding that deal, Q3 value was 18% lower. The large-deal comparison explains much of the headline fall, but not all of it.
Why This Matters
For a business considering an acquisition, the number of transactions and the money attached to them answer different questions. A market with many smaller deals may still offer opportunities to buy a capability or enter a new market. It does not follow that sellers can obtain the same valuations as before.
These datasets should not be stitched into one series. The reported LSEG figures cover the year to date; Grant Thornton describes a single quarter in its own tracking. Their totals are not directly comparable, and neither establishes that a weaker rupee caused a particular deal decision.
The Big Picture
Saraf’s strategic rationale is useful context for interpreting activity, not a guarantee about the next quarter. Aggregate counts also say little about whether an individual acquisition will produce the expected operating gains.
The Crunch
Read a deal headline in three parts: how many transactions, how much reported value and which period. Then ask how much a small number of large deals changes the comparison. Resilience is more informative when the measure is clear.
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